This is the time of year when all the investment houses promote their market outlooks for the coming year. I don’t usually listen for whether the market is going to be up or down, but what underlying factors could cause concern or opportunity.
I listened to a webinar from Northern Trust Asset Management today. They are taking a “neutral” risk stance since they would rather protect the downside instead of missing a large upside. Their key rationales for this positioning focus on the uncertainty of increased Fed tightening and potential for disruptions in global trade due to U.S./China trade negotiations.
For their “target” long term strategic portfolio, they have minor tweaks in risk and risk-control assets: they underweight cash, TIPS, and EM equity and overweight high yield and U.S. investment grade debt. They are “at target” for U.S. and Developed ex-U.S. equities.
Happy to send along the pitch book for this webinar if interested; just let me know